I Predict the Oscar Nominations

Regular readers know that I participate annually in an Oscar pool with my good friends in New York, Lorraine and Dennis.   The winner gets dinner paid for by the other two.  For no good reason at all, I have won the last several years.  So, if you yourself are in a similar pool, you might want to pay attention to this post.

Here's how our pool works.   The three of us select what we think will be the nominations in the top six Oscar categories announced this coming Thursday morning.  Each of us winds up with a score of correct picks that we take into Oscar night where we all have to select the winners in every single category.

So, let's play.  Here's what I am thinking right now, based on what I have seen and, more importantly, what I have heard.

BEST PICTURE

Because there are potentially ten nominated movies, the three of us pick a grand total of ten.  To think that there are ten movies worthy of this award in any given year is already mind-blowing.   But, here goes...

1.  12 YEARS A SLAVE:  Haven't seen it, but it's the official "Hollywood needs to feel better about America's past" movie for 2013.  Phony liberals singing the praises of this Roots reboot.  Meanwhile, the same Tinseltown elite will stiff their gardeners and pool cleaners for Christmas tips.

2.  GRAVITY:  Technologically stunning, even if the screenplay came to Earth with a thud.   No surprise since English is the second language for the filmmakers.

3.  AMERICAN HUSTLE:  It's got all the buzz right now, even though the thing I liked best about the movie was the 70s soundtrack.

4.  CAPTAIN PHILLIPS:  The best action movie I have seen since "Die Hard."  Plus it had something to say.

5.  NEBRASKA:  One of my favorite films of the year.  If you've ever dealt with an aging parent, this one will sing to you.

6.  SAVING MR. BANKS:  This film has a lot of haters.  The way folks are fact checking it, you would think it was produced not by Disney, but the Tea Party.  It was an entertaining story and 100 times more engaging than the critics' darling "Inside Llewyn Davis."  I predict the latter will miss out on a nomination because of the bad reactions I have heard about from industry screenings.

7.  HER:  Not sure if I liked it or loved it or hated it.  Maybe a bit of all three.  Although I really the movie would be a lot funnier if they used Gilbert Gottfried as the voice of the computer.

8.  DALLAS BUYERS CLUB:  I hated it but the movie has its fans.

9.  THE WOLF OF WALL STREET:  Yes, it's three hours long and excessive, but director Martin Scorsese has a reverence that the Academy doesn't like to ignore.  Plus I think young Hollywood executives can identify themselves in the cocaine-laden decadence of Wall Street.

10.  BLUE JASMINE:  My tenth slot is a toss-up between the Woody Allen movie and "Philomena."  Both stars will get nominated in the Best Actress category.  I could be wrong on this one.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Directors Guild nominations came out this week and, as a rule, the Oscar-nominated directors usually match up.  Except there's always one surprise.  I don't see that happening this year.

1.  ALFONSO CUARON (GRAVITY):  Even though it's really nothing but a computer-generated episode of "Lost In Space."

2.  DAVID O. RUSSELL (AMERICAN HUSTLE):  I still love the soundtrack best.

3.  STEVE MCQUEEN (12 YEARS A SLAVE):  No, not the guy who was in "The Great Escape."

4. PAUL GREENGRASS (CAPTAIN PHILLIPS):   Loaded with tension and that's the director's job.

5.  MARTIN SCORSESE (THE WOLF OF WALL STREET):  After all, it is Marty.

BEST ACTOR

These five actors are virtual locks.  I think.

1.  CHIWETEL EJIOFOR (12 YEARS A SLAVE):  One foolproof path to an Oscar nomination?  Play a persecuted slave.

2.  BRUCE DERN (NEBRASKA):  The perfect portrayal of an addled old man.

3.  TOM HANKS (CAPTAIN PHILLIPS)  This was truly a tour de force performance.  That's a lot coming from somebody who thinks Tom Hanks is an incredibly overrated actor.

4.  ROBERT REDFORD (ALL IS LOST):  Even though he had virtually no dialogue to memorize.

5.  MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY (DALLAS BUYERS CLUB):  Holy crap.  We must be that much closer to the apocalypse.  Matthew McConaughey will be an Oscar nominee!!!

BEST ACTRESS

We have four locks in this category. The fifth slot is a real head scratcher.   

1.  CATE BLANCHETT (BLUE JASMINE):  She was the major reason this movie worked and will likely win the Oscar.

2.  SANDRA BULLOCK (GRAVITY):  Although I much preferred it when Angela Cartwright was floating around in outer space.

3.  JUDI DENCH (PHILOMENA):  A star vehicle and Dench is a very good driver.

4.  EMMA THOMPSON (SAVING MR. BANKS):  A glowing performance.  I don't care what the detractors are saying about the film's authenticity.  Plus she's been campaigning since early November.  I know.  I was with her at one of the advance screenings.

5.  AMY ADAMS (AMERICAN HUSTLE):  Okay, this was the difficult pick.   The other one who could make the grade here is Meryl Streep for "August Osage County."  I mean, Meryl has the same God-like status that Scorsese enjoys.   But I don't think voters like that movie as much as they adore "American Hustle."  This is what will make Amy Adams squeak by.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I would not be surprised if Daniel Bruhl surprises us with a nomination for his role in "Rush."  But, at the end of Thursday morning, these are the five actors who will be getting the call.   Well, wait, one of them can't answer the phone any more.

1.  JARED LETO (DALLAS BUYERS CLUB):  I think they've already inscribed the actual statue with his name.

2.  BARKHAD ABDI (CAPTAIN PHILLIPS):  So good as a Somalian pirate that they might want to count the silverware at the Governors Ball.  But, please....use of this Hollywood dough to get your teeth fixed.

3.  BRADLEY COOPER (AMERICAN HUSTLE):  Any time an actor puts curlers in his hair for a film role, he should be nominated.

4.  MICHAEL FASSBENDER (12 YEARS A SLAVE):  This is the category where villainous performances get noticed.

5.  JAMES GANDOLFINI (ENOUGH SAID):  You really got to see this guy's acting range with his wonderfully sweet role in this movie.  Hollywood realizes they have very few chances left to honor him.  From people I know who dealt with him, Gandolfini was a very nice and generous man to work with.  This is probably their last opportunity to recognize him.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is the one category where an overlooked performance can sneak in from a movie you never even heard of.  So, while I'm confident here, there could be a wild card contender.

1.  JENNIFER LAWRENCE (AMERICAN HUSTLE):  I enjoyed every moment she was on screen in this film.

2. LUPITA NYONG'O (12 YEARS A SLAVE):  I'll be listening to hear how that last name is pronounced.

3.  JUNE SQUIBB (NEBRASKA):  She steals the final third of this film with a hilarious performance.

4.  OPRAH WINFREY (LEE DANIELS' THE BUTLER):  I'm still laughing over this outlandish turn in the comedy riot of last summer.  This joke has no business being nominated for her sloppy and gratuitous acting, but, well, she is Oprah.

5.  JULIA ROBERTS (AUGUST OSAGE COUNTY):  This is the nomination that could be upended by the supporting actress everybody forgot about.  If one falls off this list of predictions, Roberts is the most likely victim.

Come on back later this week when I report on how I did and where I stand in my pool with Dennis and Lorraine.

Dinner last night:  Leftover roast chicken and vegetables.