It's a good thing these things are covered. The forecast calls for rain on the red carpet this Sunday. And now everybody is imagining just what Natalie Portman will look like in a thoroughly soaked cocktail dress. The quintessential wet dream.
Okay, here's the rest of my Oscar pool pix. I tackle the big stuff today.
Six weeks ago, I would have told you these six awards were locks. The easiest Oscars to predict in years. But, of late, there are rumblings that lead me to believe that there will be one surprise coming. The trick is to guess which is the category that will come undone by Sunday night.
Best Director: Usually, this winner matches up to the movie that is named Best Picture. But, because this year is such a close race between "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech," we are ripe for a split in tradition. While Tom Hooper did a terrific job with the latter and won the DGA Award for his work, his film is very much a straight-forward telling of a tale. The Facebook saga, which cuts across several years of court testimony, could have been very boring. But, DAVID FINCHER made it all incredibly interesting and his direction totally made the difference in the success of the film.
Best Supporting Actor: This is an early lock that I think will hold up. Despite the fact that he is a complete shithead, the Academy seems to love CHRISTIAN BALE's performance in "The Fighter." My Oscar pool buddy Lorraine and I have the same opinion. His work here was more impersonation than interpretation. When you look at the closing credits and see the real guy Bale is playing, you realize that he is taking the really easy way out with his acting choices. I'd love to see Geoffrey Rush sneak in here as the speech therapist in "The King's Speech." Nope. In this category of late, loud, crazy, and over-the-top seems to always triumph. Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem, Christoph Waltz. All over-rated and noisy performances. Bale joins the list.
Best Supporting Actress: Hmmmm. This might be the upset of the night. It seems primed to happen. Melissa Leo as the ultra-obnoxious mother in "The Fighter" has cleaned up some of the other awards.. She claimed both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award. But, from what I am reading, her Oscar advertising has been very in-your-face and she is turning off lots of voters. This happened years ago when Chill Wills took out so many self-congratulatory ads that the entire town rebelled and gave Sal Mineo the Oscar. If you're thinking that nobody can win both the Golden Globe and the SAG and still not get the Oscar in this category, think again. That old battle-ax Lauren Bacall got stiffed in just this fashion back in 1996. This is also the category where young kids can do well. Patty Duke. Anna Paquin. Tatum O'Neal. You see where I'm going? This could be the pick that sinks my chances to win my pool, but I'm thinking HAILEE STEINFELD from "True Grit" may walk off with the statue.
Best Actor: The equivalent of filling out your name on a form at the Department of Motor Vehicles. If you don't get this one right, you have no business even participating. COLIN FIRTH. COLIN FIRTH. COLIN FIRTH. Oh, yeah, and if that's not clear....COLIN FIRTH.
Best Actress: Probably a lock, too, but there are voices out here in Tinseltown that talk about a backlash against NATALIE PORTMAN and her performance in the dreadful "Black Swan." Older Academy winners might be wondering what that movie was all about and punching their ballot for Annette Bening in the equally dreadful "The Kids Are All Right." But this is the category where, traditionally, the hot younger actresses always seem to thrive. Julia Roberts. Reese Witherspoon. Sandra Bullock. It's almost like people want them to win just to see what they're barely wearing.
Best Picture: Once again, we've got ten nominated films and it is designed to give a lot of movies a chance to be recognized. Except this year, there are really only two that merit any attention whatsoever. 127 Hours? Didn't see it but it's too small. Black Swan? The Exorcist meets Friday the 13th meets Prom Night meets the Red Shoes. That's three "meets" too many. The Fighter? Rocky goes to Fenway Park. Yawn. Inception? Somebody call 1-800-GOT-JUNK and pick up this movie. The Kids Are All Right? Wrong. Toy Story 3? Great, but it will win in the Animated category. True Grit? Decent but really nothing more than a very good western. Winter's Bone? Needs to be buried in the backyard. Yep, it's a tight battle between two movies and, sorry, Facebook, I am confirming THE KING'S SPEECH as my friend.
Dinner last night: Chili with chicken.
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