Today, I'm giving you my guesstimates for the really big awards this Sunday. Feel free to use them in your Oscar pool. These will be the picks in mine.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: In my viewpoint, there are some acting nominees every year that are essentially "limo riders." Yep, the biggest reward you will get all night is, well, that stretch limousine ride to the Kodak Theater. Maybe Ryan Seacrest will ask you where you got your shoes. And maybe your date for the gala will treat you afterwards to...ahem.
So, looking at the five nominees in this category, I am seeing three "limo riders." Kenneth Branagh, Jonah Hill, and Nick Nolte? Eat as many peanuts as you want from the open bar. That will be the highlight of your night. The race is between Max Von Sydow for "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" and Christopher Plummer for "Beginners."
It would be way too cool for Von Sydow to win since he didn't have a single word of dialogue in the movie. But, despite the fact that I heard "Beginners" was dreadful, it's Plummer's day for a lifetime achievement award. I'll pretend he is accepting an Oscar for playing Captain Von Trapp in "The Sound of Music." The winner is CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cue my major yawn. There are two "limo riders" in this category. Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs?" Who the hell are you anyway? Jessica Chastain for "The Help?" I didn't even realize you were in that film. Enjoy the broccoli florets and the ranch dip.
You can pretty discount as well Berenice Bejo for her cloying performance as Peppy Miller in "The Artist." No Oscar winner should have the bad dental structure she sports in that movie. It'd be great to see Melissa McCarthy score one for "Bridesmaids." But, I'm thinking the diarrhea scene hits way too close to home for those Academy members over the age of 70. Excess bowel movements are particularly annoying to people who don't have one in a single seven-day period.
Months ago, the Academy seemed to bestow this Oscar on Octavia Spencer as one of the housekeepers in "The Help." Sassy, sharp, moving, and, oh, by the way, she's Black in a movie that once again reminds us that there was once slavery in this country...over 150 years ago. And, while Melissa McCarthy had lots of toilet issues in her performance, Octavia literally makes her boss eat shit. Fitting since Spencer's first name reminds me of that yogurt Jamie Lee Curtis eats to be regular. Enough bathroom humor, folks. Yeah, yeah, the winner will be OCTAVIA SPENCER.
ACTOR: Another trio of "limo riders." Demian Bichir in "A Better Life?" I don't even know who you are and what your movie is. Gary Oldman for "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy?" That played for about a week and a half at the Arclight. Sadly, I loved Brad Pitt in a totally layered and brilliant performance in "Moneyball," but he, too, has no shot. The solace is that all three of you will probably get really nice consolation prizes when you hit the sheets later that night with your significant others.
The race is between George Clooney for "The Descendants" and Jean Dujardin in "The Artist." George, you were a lot, lot better in "Up in the Air" two years ago. The movie you're nominated for is really mediocre. And that fake tear at the end? How many takes did you need to manage that? Sorry.
Yeah, despite the fact that the film is bloated and grossly overrated, the winner will be JEAN DUJARDIN and his ultra-cheesy moustache. With any luck, he'll be on an Air France flight out of LAX by Monday night and we'll never see him again.
ACTRESS: Glenn Close for "Albert Nobbs" and Rooney Mara for "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?" Thank you for playing this year's Oscar game. You got a new dress out of it. You, too, Michelle Williams for "My Week with Marilyn." Please try again next year.
I thought Meryl Streep was absolutely luminous as Margaret Thatcher in "The Iron Lady." But, as I travel the environs of Hollywood, I am noticing that people are confusing their feelings for her performance with their opinions of Mrs. Thatcher's leadership. For Pete's sake, it's a freakin' movie. In any other year and with a more politically intelligent voting body, Streep is the winner.
But, wait, we have Viola Davis in "The Help" and Hollywood is craving another moment where they can build yet another bridge of racial relations. Not only will we have one acting award to a Black actor, but we can have two. Imagine the photo opportunities. What a historic night! And maybe that will stop once and for all that loudmouth Denzel Washington from bitching about the Academy being too White. Personally, I' m anxiously waiting for the year where two Oscar acting winners are both Dutch.
The winner will be VIOLA DAVIS. But, Hattie McDaniel, you're still my favorite Oscar-winning household help.
DIRECTOR: Unfortunately, a non-contest. It would be terrific if venerable directors like Woody Allen for "Midnight in Paris" or Martin Scorsese for "Hugo" could win. But, the juggernaut will continue for "The Artist" as Hollywood falls over itself to embrace a gimmick. There are much better films than "The Artist" in 2011. There were much better silent films in 1927. But, once again, style wins over substance. The winner will be MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS. Let's hope he has the Air France seat right next to Dujardin on Monday night.
PICTURE: Can I please raise my hand for two nominated films that I truly loved? "Midnight in Paris" worked as well on my second viewing as it did on the first. Incredibly clever and downright educational. "Moneyball" was my favorite film last year. The filmmakers took an overly clinical non-fiction book about statistics and economics and somehow gave it a tender heart. It was so much more than a baseball movie. Friends of mine who don't even follow the sport loved it.
The rest of the nine total nominated features I either didn't see, dismissed, or simply just liked. The battle for the top honors here is between "The Help" and "The Artist." Groan. The former is nothing more than a Road Runner cartoon with real people. Let's watch how a White person can get pummeled with an anvil from the Acme Company. I wrote here that this movie was terribly wrong-headed and, in a bizarre way, set race relations back about 60 years. It could be a surprise winner Sunday night. If you really want to see a great film about race relations in the South, may I suggest the new restoration of "To Kill a Mockingbird" on DVD and Blu-ray?
But, in recent years, the Academy has had no interest in upsets. Harvey Weinstein has worked his magic again and shoved "The Artist" down our throats as if he wants to make sure we all eat our peas for dinner. He bought an undeserved Best Picture Oscar for "Shakespeare in Love" and he does it all over again when 'THE ARTIST" wins on Sunday night. And, if you really want to see a silent movie that was truly the best film of its year, may I suggest the new restoration of "Wings" on DVD or Blu-ray?
Dinner last night: Teriyaki beef and vegetables.
2 comments:
My money's on Max for Lifetime Achievement. Plummer's good in everything but can't rescue this sunken ship, the worst flick of 2011, gimmicky and pretentious beyond belief. I've even told strangers not to see it.
I rather enjoyed Beginners, though it was by no means a memorable film. I did, however, love Plummer's performance and was betwixt and between which of these two wonderful actors should win. I tended to favor Plummer; besides he sort of reminds me of my father.
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