My Guesses for Your 2008 Oscar Winners - Part 2

As Ronald Reagan moaned in Kings Row, here's the rest of me. If you're using these for your office Oscar pool, I do have a good track record. And where else can you get a guaranteed winning ticket as well as Helen Mirren's home address?

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: If F. Scott Fitzgerald saw what the Benjamin Button folks did to his short story, he would be drinking twice as much as he already did. Doubt and Frost/Nixon are based on plays and, for some reason, Hollywood loves to discount Broadway. The Reader is based on a novel, which, of course, its own heroine couldn’t even read. A vicious dramatic circle. One more time, I am thinking we are experiencing a triumphal night for Bollywood. The winner is…SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: To think that the word “original” is used in relation to anything in the film industry these days should merit an award for being an award. I hear Wall-E has some buzz, which is surprising since there was no dialogue at all in the first half-hour. But, nevertheless, following the WGA awards, there are plenty of people out here who are trying to atone for voting in favor of Proposition 8. The winner will be…MILK.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: This Oscar almost always matches up directly to the Best Director. So, the winner is…SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE.

BEST DIRECTOR: Okay, what did I just say? The Cinematography Oscar always matches up to the Director award. And you’re still reading to see what I picked?? Hello??? The winner will be…DANNY BOYLE FOR SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. If there was justice in LenLand, Ron Howard would get the nod for Frost/Nixon. If you read this blog regularly, you are painfully aware that there is never ever any justice in LenLand.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: First, let me shitcan the three nominees that might as well stay home and order Chinese food on Sunday. Taraji P. Henson, who may or may not be related to the Muppets, did nothing new as the mother in Benjamin Button, a film which also did nothing new. In a movie full of very showy performances, Amy Adams was serviceable in Doubt, but not a standout. Marisa Tomei's reward for pole dancing in The Wrestler will be essentially whatever jollies she got from pole dancing in The Wrestler. The race comes down to Viola Davis as the Black mother in Doubt and Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a Woody Allen film that was seen only by his 16 kids and/or wives. Davis had one stellar scene which conceivably push her over the top the way Beatrice Straight won her Oscar for essentially 45 seconds of acting in Network. But, if you look at Academy history, the Woodman has a knack of getting some actress the Supporting nod. Dianne Wiest in Hannah and Her Sisters. Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite, another Woody movie which was seen by even less people primarily because he had fewer kids and/or wives at the time. Soooooo, the winner will be...PENELOPE CRUZ FOR VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Gag! As much as I wish the Academy would honor Robert Downey Jr. for his brilliant comedic turn in Tropic Thunder, he has no shot. Neither do the other three nominees who just happen to be alive. This Oscar was given out last year, months before The Dark Knight even opened. As soon as Heath Ledger got toetagged by the NYC coroner, he was destined to be a winner Sunday night. The Academy is dying to slobber over him one last time. Pass the Kleenex. And the potato chips. In my humble opinion, Ledger's acting choices as the Joker were not a stretch. Most actors tell me that the easiest role to play is the crazy one. Boo hoo and let's finally get the formaldehyde into his career, which was cut short by his own stupid negligience. The winner will be....sob, HEATH LEDGER FOR THE DARK KNIGHT.

ACTRESS: Another two filly race. The chances for Melissa Leo are as cold as the movie (Frozen River) she starred in. Angelina Jolie for Changeling? She was good, but the movie never got any box office traction. Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married? I'm guessing most Academy members weren't watching some ultra-dysfunctional family arguing on the screen when they can see the same damn thing at home. This is really shaping up as the veteran vs. the upstart. Meryl Streep as an old biddy nun in Doubt and Kate Winslet as an illiterate Nazi guard in The Reader. Streep's Oscar batting average is not strong. Point against her. Everybody thought Winslet would have been named for the dreadful Revolutionary Road. Point against her. Doubt did not get a Best Picture nomination. Point against Streep. The Reader did get a Best Picture nomination. Point for Winslet. The winner likely will be...KATE WINSLET FOR THE READER.

ACTOR: First, let's discard the sure losers. Brad Pitt for Benjamin Button. Ha! Richard Jenkins for the Visitor. Ha ha! Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon? That would be my vote, but I don't have one. Enjoy the Tony you got for the role, Frank. It comes down to Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler and Sean Penn for Milk. I've seen both movies and the former, while an impressive performance, is really a tough one to stomach. During some of the more violent and bloody scenes, I closed my eyes. Can you imagine how some old fart film editor from Bel Air would react? "What kind of meshuggah movie is this?" But, Mickey may get some sympathy votes from other Academy voters who have also had bad encounters with incompetent plastic surgeons. But, at the end of the evening, we will see the Proposition 8 backlash one more time. The winner will be...SEAN PENN FOR MILK.

PICTURE: This has been a year of changing momentum. At one point in time, several of these movies were considered a shoo-in for the Big Kahuna of Oscars. When it opened last fall, Frost/Nixon was lauded as the one to beat. And that would be my opinion now. But, because it wasn't glitzy and basically concerned itself with a compelling story and good acting with zero special effects, the film fell out of favor. Then, just before its premiere, the goofballs in Hollywood were all saying that Benjamin Button would enjoy an Oscar night sweep. That was before Academy members actually went to see this mess and realized that all the hype was just that. Hype. A clump of Play-Doh pretending to be Stonehenge. Well, now, timing is everything for Slumdog Millionaire. It is peaking with buzz at just the right time. Who knows? If the Oscar voting season lasted one more month, we might suddenly be seeing a groundswell of emotion for Confessions of a Shopaholic. Ultimately, the Best Picture Oscar never goes to the best movie. It goes to the one with the most momentum at voting time. Thinking back, that's how Saving Private Ryan lost to the sluggish Shakespeare In Love and that's how the wonderful Apollo 13 lost to the bloated Braveheart. For me, this year's winner will be equally as ridiculous. So, the winner is....the stylish but empty SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE.

Dinner last night: Cheesesteak sandwich at the Cheesecake Factory.