I Am Your Official Oscar Prognosticator

As I have written previously, I participate in an annual Oscar pool with two friends back East. We start by trying to select the nominations in 6 key categories. Then, on Oscar night, we try to guess the winners to everything.

This year, I got 26 of the 30 possible nominations correct, which puts me 3 points ahead of my NY-based chums. So, here's what I think is going to happen on Sunday night. Be careful how you use these. Also, do not operate heavy machinery.

BEST PICTURE: The groundswell of support is for NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN. While not my favorite movie of the five nominated, it's not my most hated. That honor falls to the grossly overrated "There Will Be Blood," which was a three hour rectal exam.

BEST ACTOR: The same juggernaut is happening for DANIEL DAY LEWIS, star of the aforementioned "There Will Be Blood." He envelops every single shot of the movie and does a commanding job in what is a septic tank of a movie. One could argue that this is nothing more than a bad John Huston impersonation. Nevertheless, all the others have virtually no shot and should be happy to simply walk the red carpet and duck inane questions from Mary Hart. Everybody to the Dairy Queen for a milk shake.

BEST ACTRESS: I think this is ultimately a two actress race. Cate Blanchett is nominated for that Queen Elizabeth movie, and nobody saw it except for a few drag queens in West Hollywood. Laura Linney was luminous in "The Savages," but it never did get any traction at the box office. Marion Cotillard was terrific as Edith Piaf, but I am guessing too many Academy members thought those drunken binges hit too close to home. So, for me, it would be between young Ellen Page in "Juno" and JULIE CHRISTIE for "Away From Me." I think age trumps youth, especially for those Academy members who also can't remember where they put their car keys.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: No contest for any men here. Philip Seymour Hoffman was the only thing left standing after the "Charlie Wilson's War" debacle. I did see Casey Affleck in that Jesse James thing, but I am betting most Academy folks dozed off before I did. In most years, this would be Hal Holbrook's career Oscar, but, thanks to JAVIER BARDEM in "No Country for Old Men," the evening will be merely an excuse for Hal's missus, Dixie Carter, to buy a new dress.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: This could go in any direction. Forget the bad seed kid from "Atonement." Any of the other four could wind up winning. I did not see Cate Blanchett's performance because I draw the line at five Bob Dylans in any one movie. Tilda Swinton was terrific in "Michael Clayton," and she allegedly has some last minute heat, especially since this might be one of that movie's only possible wins. I did Netflix "Gone Baby Gone" for Amy Ryan's performance, but her character was too much of a dirtbag. I could hug RUBY DEE for slapping that ingrate Denzel Washington in "American Gangster," and I am guessing the Academy will embrace her as well. The only thing against her is that, if you went to pee in the middle of the movie, you might have missed her. When she mentions her husband in the thank you speech, how many idiots in the audience will know that she's not referring to Ozzie Nelson?

BEST DIRECTOR: THE COEN BROTHERS for "No Country For Old Men." Book it. Lock it. Count your winnings.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: In all the good things about "JUNO," I think the script stands out the most. A deserving Oscar for somebody who knows how to write funny.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Coen Brothers again for "NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN," and they will need their swag bag to carry home all the awards from Sunday night.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Forget that 'Persepolis," which is a cartoon about an Iranian girl. Looney Tunes equipped with a suicide bomb. It has to be "RATATOUILLE," Pixar's best effort in years.

BEST ART DIRECTION: Of all the nominees that I saw, only "SWEENEY TODD" actually made me want to visit the locale. But, I would shave before I go.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: This usually matches up with the Best Picture and the Best Director, but all those dusty locations and camera set-ups in "THERE WILL BE BLOOD" were pretty impressive.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Not a single nomination for Edith Head, who is obviously slacking off. I give it to "SWEENEY TODD" for its ingenious blend of interesting wardrobe and blood.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: I think the winner will come from the two nominees that I saw. Michael Moore's "Sicko" was more yellow journalism than documentary. 'NO END IN SIGHT," however, presented the most logical and even-handed view of the war in Iraq I have ever seen. And, as impartial as it was, you clearly came away with the notion that we were truly screwed by going over there.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: How does anybody see these things? I know that "Sari's Mother" is about some Iraqi boy with AIDS, so that could be a natural. But, "FREEHELD" is about a dying lady copy who is fighting to pass her pension over to her lesbian partner. My coin flips over to gays fighting about health care.

BEST FILM EDITING: This always matches up with the Best Picture. "NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN."

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: I've heard of only one of the nomimated films. But, "THE COUNTERFEITERS" is set during the Holocaust and that's always an Oscar slamdunk.

BEST MAKE-UP: Since they did such a great job making Marion Cotillard look like Edith Piaf, both drunk and sober, "LA VIE EN ROSE" is the winner.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: I don't remember much of the music from any of these, so I am thinking that "ATONEMENT" gets thrown a bone here.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: That ditty from the movie "ONCE" was played over and over and over throughout the movie. And it stayed with me for about ten minutes after I left the parking lot. That is an accomplishment these days. I couldn't, however, hum it now if I tried.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Not one f*&^ing clue, but "I AM THE WALRUS" reportedly has some ties to John Lennon, so I always go with a dead Beatle.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Not one nano-f*&^ing clue. There's something called "THE TONTO WOMAN," which I assume is some story about Mrs. Jay Silverheels opening up a gaming casino. Or maybe not. Either way, it works for me, kemosabe.

BEST SOUND EDITING: One of those bizarre categories where Oscar pools are won and lost. The guy who did "TRANSFORMERS" has been nominated 20 times without a win. God, even Susan Lucci didn't have to wait that long.

BEST SOUND MIXING: Because the winner of the Sound Editing award always gets this one, too. "TRANSFORMERS."

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: I didn't see any of the nominees, but since I've grown fonder of the movie over the last two paragraphs, I will say "TRANSFORMERS."

I also predict that the biggest applause during the annual dead roll call will go to Heath Ledger and Suzanne Pleshette. Just in case you'll bet on ANYTHING.

Dinner last night: Cervelat sandwich.