What Could Be This Year's Oscar Nominations

Every year around this time, I get myself involved in a pool with some friends in New York. We select what we believe will be the Oscar nominations in six key categories. Then, that score gets transferred over to the actual award ceremony, where we try to pick the winners in every single category, including the Oscar for Best Head Explosion (Male) and Best Ear Lobe Chewed in a Sex Scene (Female).

I approach my picks by trying to read the Academy's mind. I look at the trade ads and listen to the buzz around Hollyweird. Then, I attempt to ascertain which faction will win out. The new young turks on line at the Ivy. Or the old hard-boiled farts who are also on line at the Ivy. Invariably, we do these picks and then, suddenly, somebody shows up on the list that we forgot about. Keep in mind that these thoughts are not what I would like to happen next Tuesday morning, but what I think will happen. If I had my way, Cletus from "the Simpsons Movie" would be nominated for Best Supporting Actor and Doris Day would get an honorary Oscar. Neither of those are in the realm of possibility. My selections are highlighted in green.

Best Picture: There are three locks so far. Everybody is in love with No Country for Old Men, not because it is a great movie, but because both the young and old voters are probably fantasizing about walking through CAA with an air-powered weapon and blowing a hole in their agent's head. Atonement is the kind of movie the Academy loves. There's romance and war and British accents. Juno gets this year's "Little Miss Sunshine" treatment, but it truly deserves the nod. That leaves three movies fighting for the last two slots. Sweeney Todd was fabulous, but probably too bloody for those Academy members trying to relax over the holidays and not throw up the Honey-baked Ham they ate for dinner. There Will Be Blood is way overrated and, in my mind, didn't feature enough blood. But, it's faux-epic and nobody really knows the difference anymore. The fifth slot will go to Michael Clayton, which just might be the most entertaining film of the year. And, it's about greed and corruption, so studio heads can identify.

Best Director: Back in the old days, this category almost always matched up with the nominations for Best Picture. But, in the past twenty years, it seems like the members work hard to exclude one or two of the directors up for Best Picture. If nothing else, it spices up the whole affair, with certain directors learning just how much their peers like their movie, but not them. This year, there is the potentiality of two such delicious snubs. First, let's talk about the solids. The Coen Brothers for No Country For Old Men will continue the juggernaut for this movie, which should be retitled "No Fargo for Anybody." It's not their best work, but it held my interest. Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will be Blood is another given, because it was long and dusty. If there is the anticipated groundswell, I am also expecting Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton. I am thinking the screws get put on the directors for Juno and Atonement. Jason Reitman, who helmed the former, doesn't even shave yet and will be given a writing nomination as the "Lee's Press-on Nails" consolation prize. I have frankly never heard of Joe Wright, who directed Atonement and I am thinking most of the folks at Nate N'Al's haven't either. One of the two available slots will go to Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, primarily because the first 30 minutes of the movie are seen through the eyes and mind of a 42 year-old stroke victim. After that, I lost interest in a film that basically told the story of this guy dictating a novel by blinking his eye. I winked a bit myself. Forty of them right to the end of this snoozefest. The fifth nomination may go to Sean Penn for Into the Wild, which was unbelievably unbelievable. He's been getting a lot of press lately, along with the DGA nom. Plus Hollywood hasn't done anything for him since they found his brother dead in Santa Monica a few years back.

Best Actor: There are three names that automatically get the early morning wake-up call next Tuesday. Daniel Day-Lewis from There Will Be Blood is in virtually every shot of the movie. I think he might even have sold me my Goobers at the candy stand the night I saw it. He chews the scenery and does it all with this funky voice and his left shoe on. Johnny Depp from Sweeney Todd was luminous and also carried a tune quite well. Plus, he really looked like a serial killer, except the white streak in his hair reminded me of my high school biology teacher. And that look was not particularly fetching on a woman. George Clooney from Michael Clayton can now do no wrong. He's really the new Tom Hanks and might even be the better actor. He certainly is the one in better shape. The last two slots are up for grabs among a myriad of performances. There's Denzel Washington in American Gangster, but I think his portrayal of this creep was not exactly acting. I am hearing that Denzel has turned into a real dirtbag and probably abuses the checkout staff at Ralph's just like in the movie You also have Ryan Gosling who starred in Lars & The Real Girl, as this nut who fell in love with a mannequin, and didn't even have the good sense to drive in the car pool lane with it. I hear there was early buzz for James McAvoy's performance in Atonement, but that has waned. So, I'm picking Viggo Mortenson from Eastern Promises, a movie I didn't see, and Emile Hirsch from Into The Wild, a movie I wish I hadn't.

Best Actress: There are three definites. Ellen Page from Juno is truly the lovable pregnant girl that everybody remembers from high school, except for me. Julie Christie from Away From Her was simply marvelous and I can't remember when I saw a better depiction about someone in the early stages of Ahlzeimer's. Actually, the fact that I can't remember another performance has me worried as well. Marion Cotillard from La Vie En Rose was sterling as the tragic songstress, Edith Piaf. It reminded me in many ways of Judy Garland, who is now remembered simply as Britney Spears without the Facebook. I wish I could write that Amy Adams would be recognized for her role in Enchanted, but the buttlescutt is that she has run out of pixie dust. Somehow, Angelina Jolie from A Mighty Heart, a movie released last summer, has come out of nowhere to capture the Academy's voting hearts. I say the fifth slot will be grabbed by latecomer Laura Linney from The Savages. I would not quibble with this nod, as she is one of the few American film actresses who actually takes chances with her role selections. And she has yet to lower herself and co-star in some piece of junk with Matthew McConaghey.

Best Supporting Actor: I documented this category the other day. There's always one nomination given to some old coot for a body of work. This year, the official AARP-supported candidate is Hal Holbrook from Into The Wild, and he's absolutely the only reason to see this dreck. Another cinch is Javier Bardem from No Country For Old Men, although I am deducting points for the bad haircut. You can also assume that Philip Seymour Hoffman from Charlie Wilson's War will get a call. The Academy loves him, and, in this movie, he is the lone pedigree in a pound full of mangy mutts. In the oxymoronic role of a disturbed and corrupt corporate attorney, Tom Wilkinson from Michael Clayton will be summoned to stand in front of the Oscar judges. Because it was about two weeks long, I never saw Casey Affleck from The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, but everybody is talking about him. Maybe somebody in that family can really act. Personally, I'd like to see J.K. Simmons, the father from Juno, get nominated, but his performance might be too under-stated for the usually pro-scenery-chewing Academy.

Best Supporting Actress: This is the category where somebody surprising always pops up. If Joanne Worley did a film this year, this is where she might get nominated. The critical favorite is Amy Ryan from Gone Baby Gone, which was gone baby gone from theaters before I got to see it. Cate Blanchett from I'm Not There was supposedly amazing as one of 87 people to play Bob Dylan in this movie, and she now has an Oscar legacy of playing a smelly rock musician and Katharine Hepburn. Tilda Swinton from Michael Clayton also gets a limo ride come Oscar night. Ruby Dee from American Gangster may get called by Academy members who are super-appreciative of her getting to slap Denzel across his kisser. There's a whole slew of actresses who could fill the fifth slot. There's some forgettable name, Saoirse Ronan, for Atonement, as well as Vanessa Redgrave for the same flick. Jennifer Garner might finally merit some attention for Juno. And, frankly, Allison Janney from Juno stole every scene she was in. But, I'm guessing the fifth slot goes to Catherine Keener from Into The Wild, primarily because she has filmed a new movie every week for the past seven years.

Should you take these picks to Vegas? Heck, I wouldn't even take them to one of those Indian gaming casinos in Pacoima. But, as they used to say on the Lotto ads, you gotta be in it to win it.

Dinner last night: Salami sandwich and antipasto salad.